Minutes

MINUTES OF TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD

AV010 (1) Sub Committee on Commercial Space Transportation (CST)

Subcommittee Events held in Conjunction with TRB Annual Meeting,

Washington DC, January 8-12, 2017

CST Subcommittee Officers:

Five Subcommittee Events:

  • Sunday January 8 – Workshop: Commercial Space – Exploring the Path Forward
  • Monday January 9 – Subcommittee Dinner
  • Tuesday January 10 – Subcommittee Annual Meeting
  • Tuesday Evening January 10 – Panel Discussion
  • Wednesday January 11 – Tour of Wallops Flight Facility

Sunday January 8 – Workshop: Commercial Space – Exploring the Path Forward

Moderator: 

  • Ken Davidian – (Filled in for Dr. Diane Howard due to weather-related flight cancellations)

Speakers: 

  • George Nield, Associate Administrator, FAA Office of Commercial Space Transportation (FAA-AST), FAA’s Vision of Space Traffic Management
  • Audrey Schaffer, DOD Space Policy, DOD’s Vision of Space Traffic Management
  • Stephen Earle, Special Projects Office, FAA-AST, Towards a Civil Space Traffic Management System (CSTMS)

Dr. Nield spoke first, without charts:  The USAF Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) at Vandenberg AFB issued an emergency bulletin on January 7th, announcing a possible collision of two non-maneuverable satellites in sun-synchronous orbit.  The probability of collision was 44%, but no collision occurred.  This is an example of non-defense activity required of the JSpOC.

Dr. Nield provided a history of the development of three early options on how to perform space traffic management (STM).  The options were:

– Coordinated Distributed Governance

– Federal Agency Coordinating Body

– Provide a Lead Civil Agency

Other agencies (such as NASA, NOAA) did not express interest; FAA-AST is willing to take on that role.

The Congressional Space Competitiveness Act required to 12 reports, of which 3 were applicable to space situational awareness (SSA) and STM:

Section 108 – Space Authority, assigned to the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) Director: Looked at current and near-term commercial activities to recommend proper governance approach.  The Outer Space Treaty (US is a signatory) requires each national government to oversee all space launches from their territories.  FAA oversees for the US.  FAA also does payload reviews and licenses each launch.  The report was submitted to Congress April 4, 2016 and recommended that FAA be responsible for commercial on-orbit activities.

Section 110 – Space Surveillance and SSA (DOT Led). Determined that a civil agency could perform SSA to provide safety related data for commercial use.  The report was submitted to Congress Sept 6, 2016 and concluded the FAA could perform this tasking if Congress provided Authority, Immunity, and Resources/Funding.

Section 109 – Addressed orbital traffic management (NASA contracted to SAIC). Concluded that the present arrangement does not work. Looked at safely and economic preservation of space.  Proposed three options:  (1) continue DOD approach, (2) private commercial approach, or (3) civil agency approach.  The latter was concluded to be the best approach.  FAA is reviewing and defining details of this approach.

Audrey Schaffer spoke second and provided an overview of DOD’s SSA and STM activities.  DOD believes their current commercial SSA/STM work should be transferred to a civil agency, which would allow the DOD to better focus on war prevention and warfighting responsibilities.

The Global Space Surveillance Network is operated for USAF by the JSpOC at Vandenberg AFB.  Space-Track.org tracks near-Earth objects each 8 hours, with outer screening every 24 hours.  Conjunction candidates are further screened to analyze collision probability.  Ten EMA’s and 1000’s of announcements are made daily.  Maneuvers are screened with owner operators in cases of potential collisions.  In the event of an incident (collision), the JSpOC quickly assesses the new debris and concomitant conjunction analyses.

Steph Earle spoke third.  His topic was “Towards a Civil Space Traffic Management System (CSTMS).” His charts were extracted largely from briefings presented at the FAA-AST Space Traffic Management Industry Day, held October 25, 2016.  Those charts are posted on AST’s website at:  https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ast/meetings_events/

He reviewed his charts on the Section 110 Report:

  • DoD will continue to provide data to commercial customer via JSpOC
  • FAA will not assume or take over any DOD system
  • FAA will provide orbital safety services free of charge for the good of all

FAA-AST does not intend to control or direct spacecraft but rather will provide data and services to ensure safety.  A civil system is needed to support orbital safety awareness and preservation of space and to extend internationally the standards generated.  STM means to the FAA “the policies, regulations and services that support orbital safety and preservation of the space environment.”

CSTMS characteristics:  (1) Operate cooperatively with existing SSA architectures, (2) Access to global sensors, (3) Computation system for civil needs, (4) Safety products by civil operation teams, (5) transparent operation.

Conceptual Architecture:  Observation à Processing & Analysis àProduct Dissemination SSN/Intl/Commercial à Catalog/Analysis à STM.

 Q&A for All Speakers:

Define “Industry” covered by the FAA-AST CSTMS?  Includes only those that are in the orbital regime.

Define “Services” provided by FAA – Initially providing data to commercial entities.

The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) manages allocation of bands of the radio-frequency spectrum, the allotment of radio frequencies and the registration of radio frequency assignments and, for space services, of any associated orbital position in the geostationary-satellite orbit or any associated characteristics of satellite in other orbits, in order to avoid harmful interference between radio stations of different countries.  LEO and MEO managed primarily via the launching licenses, which provide the intended orbital regime (on a case-by-case basis).  CubeSat constellations will make this much more difficult.

Dr. Nield believes there is a need to improve the fidelity/accuracy level of the current catalog.  Approximately 95% of objects in space are “inactive”

Topics for STM Research

Ken Davidian led a brainstorming session on potential topics for STM research.  Consensus was reached on the following topics:

  • Review Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University (ERAU) STM conference outputs
  • Review ALL R&D literature on STM
  • Risk analysis using current catalog
  • Where is best point in space to be (test range)? How would we know?
  • Minimum risk of collision
  • Orbital forecast as a potential product of civil STM
  • What are the options for “orbital turn signal”
  • What are inter-governmental issues re STM? Interactions? Other national organizations?
  • What are recommended capabilities an operator would have? (Xponders, maneuverability, comm, etc.)
  • Are there new ways to calculate accurate position data of new sensors, models
  • Design parameters to make objects more identifiable
  • How much data is enough?

Tuesday January 10, 1:30-3:15PM – CST Subcommittee Meeting

Original Agenda:

  1. Welcome and Attendee Introduction – Wil Laska
  2. Presentation: “Partnership Engagement Approach to Commercial Space Transportation,” Dr. Laguduva Kubendran (LK), NASA, Portfolio Executive, Commercial Partnerships
  3. Updates (based on personnel availability)
    1. TRB Update – Christy Gerencher
    2. Research Coordinator – Ken Davidian, Dr. William Tippin
    3. Membership Coordinator – Rick Rogers
    4. Planning Coordinator – Dr. Marcus Smith, Dr. Diane Howard
    5. Social Media – Siegy Adler
  4. TRB’s Webinar Program – Steve Andreadis
  5. ASTM CST Update – Ashley Wiand (ASTM)/Wil Laska
  6. White Paper/Journal Article Discussion – Wil Laska
  7. 2018 Annual Meeting Session/Workshop Development – Wil Laska
  8. Adjourn

Because of effects of inclement weather on travel, some of the speakers were unable to attend.  The bulk of the meeting focused on briefings by Dr. Kubendran and Ms. Wiand.

 Dr. Kubendran:  There is clear synergy between the goals of the Subcommittee on Commercial Space Transportation and the newly created Commercial Partnerships Portfolio (CPP) within NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate.  Dr. Laguduva Kubendran (LK), the CPP Portfolio Executive, accepted Bob’s invitation to present an overview of the CPP.  The portfolio consists of the following programs:

  • SBIR/STTR: Advance and infuse/commercialize new technologies developed by Small Businesses – $200M budget
  • Technology Transfer: Lead technology transfer and technology commercialization activities across the agency
  • Flight Opportunities: Develop suborbital and small launch vehicle market in addition to maturing technologies for future missions
  • Centennial Challenges: NASA’s prize authority to conduct prize-based challenges of high public interest to advance technologies
  • Regional Economic Development: Focused collaborations between NASA and multiple commercial entities within strategic geographic regions of interest

Dr. Kubendran’s charts are posted at:

/meetings/annual/2017-2/presentations/

Ms. Wiand:  The ASTM has stood up a new Committee, Commercial Spaceflight (F47).  The scope of the Committee will be the development and maintenance of voluntary consensus standards and recommended practices for the commercial spaceflight industry.  Areas to address in standards include, but are not limited to, design, manufacturing and operational use of vehicles used for spaceflight. One purpose of the committee is to create human spaceflight safety standards.  The work of this Committee will be coordinated with other ASTM committees and organizations having mutual interest.

Proposed Subcommittee Structures:

F47.01 Occupant Safety of Suborbital Vehicles

F47.02 Occupant Safety of Orbital Vehicles

F47.03 Unoccupied Launch and Reentry Vehicles

F47.04 Spaceports

F47.05 Cross-Cutting

F47.90 Executive

F47.91 Terminology

F47.92 Standards Road mapping

F47.93 Regulatory Liaison

Members of the TRB Subcommittee on CST are invited to join this new ASTM Committee.  The first official meeting is scheduled in DC in April 2017.

Ms. Wiand’s charts are posted at:

/meetings/annual/2017-2/presentations/

Tuesday Evening January 10 – Panel Discussion, Evolution of Nongovernmental Space Industry Segments

Moderator: 

  • Ken Davidian

Panelists:

  • Carissa Christensen, Founder and Managing Partner, The Tauri Group
  • Jason Crusan, Director, Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Division, Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate (HEOMD), NASA
  • Frank Moring, Aviation Week & Space Technology
  • Jeff Foust, Space News

A stimulating discussion was held on the commercial space industry, focusing on industry viability and social issues.

This panel discussed the following question: What is the status of the market evolution, for human suborbital and orbital space transportation markets? For each market, panelists were asked to identify specific actors, events, and activities that provide evidence of market evolution in three areas: proprietary functions (including proprietary R&D, innovation chains, and market creation), resource allocations (including publicly-available R&D, finances, and human capitol), and institutional arrangements (including legitimization, governance, and technical standards).

‘Commercial space’ and ‘New space’ are terms used to describe a wide variety of industry sectors that include activities on Earth, in orbit, in between the two, and even beyond. Two of these sectors, human suborbital space flight and orbital human space flight, will provide the opportunity for “ordinary citizens” to experience a rocket launch, weightlessness, the view of Earth from space, and the view of space from above Earth’s atmosphere.

Ken Davidian first provided an overview presentation that addressed questions such as: How do industries develop? Do they all follow the same path, or are there different paths? What factors determine which paths are followed?  He continued with a description of the different levels of analysis, and then discussed the orbital and suborbital human space transportation sectors. A description of relevant industry development model were presented, and the framework that provided the overall structure for the panel was discussed. The framework included three Industry Infrastructure Elements (IIEs), each with three sub-elements. From the description above, these elements and sub-elements include: proprietary functions (including proprietary R&D, innovation chains, and market creation), resource allocations (including publicly-available R&D, finances, and human capitol), and institutional arrangements (including legitimization, governance, and technical standards).

After the 15 minute overview presentation, the remaining 75 minutes were used for the panel discussion of each IIE and their sub-elements.

 Wednesday January 11 – Tour of Wallops Flight Facility

Subcommittee members and guests toured the WFF as detailed in the below agenda:

 

TIME TOPIC/LOCATION NOTES
10 a.m. Arrive Wallops Flight Facility, Bldg. N-1 Badging Office Met by Bruce Underwood, Deputy Director, Wallops Flight Facility; Dale Nash, Virginia Space Executive Director; and others; board 22-pax bus
10 to 10:05 a.m. Travel to Bldg. F-6  
10:05 to 10:40 a.m. Wallops overview briefing; open discussion Briefed by Bruce Underwood and Dale Nash
10:45 to 10:50 a.m. Travel to Range Control Center  
10:50 to 11:20 a.m. Range Control Center tour  
11:20 to 11:25 a.m. Travel to F-10, Sounding Rockets Program  
11:25 a.m. to 11:55 a.m. Tour Sounding Rockets Program Briefed by Philip Eberspeaker, Director, Sounding Rocket Program
11:55 a.m. to Noon Travel to Bldg. F-7, Scientific Balloon Research and Development Lab  
Noon to 12:25 p.m. Tour Scientific Balloons Briefed by Gabe Dougherty, Mission Operations Manager
12:25 to 12:30 p.m. Travel to E-2 Cafeteria  
12:30 to 1:15 p.m. Lunch  
1:15 to 1:30 p.m. Travel to Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport Pad 0A  
1:30 to 2 p.m. Tour Pad 0A Briefed by Dale Nash; closed-toe shoes required for pad tour
2 to 2:05 p.m. Travel to Horizontal Integration Facility  
2:05 to 2:30 p.m. Tour Horizontal Integration Facility  
2:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

 Travel to Bldg. N-1 Badging Office Dropped off at POVs
2:45 p.m. Depart Wallops  

 

UAS Dedicated Runway: The Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport in Virginia is opening a 3000’ long, 75’ wide runway dedicated to UAS flights/landings completely within unrestricted airspace, on the north end of Wallops Island.  The runway is 90% complete; there will be a ribbon cutting this Spring.  There will be a “hammerhead” at one end, requested by DARPA, to accommodate hard stops.

The briefings by Mr. Underwood and Mr. Nash will be posted at:  /meetings/annual/2017-2/presentations/

Robert W. Seibold

The Aerospace Corporation

February 14, 2017